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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ colts week 2, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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MIN logo
MINVikings
1-0
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
23
INDColts
0-1
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
3
0
14
20
Colts
7
10
3
3
23

Spread

IND logo
+3

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
327
278
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
232
194
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.19
Rushing Yards
95
84
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.63
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-13
-30
Sack EPA
-7.09
-3.18
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
105
51
Penalty EPA
-15.47
-5.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model50.4%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,387
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+3.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.9
Market Regression
-23.0
Final Difference
-3.0
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Value
Ptile
10/30
-1.6
38
11/14
-6.0
14
11/20
-2.7
33
11/27
-2.0
36
12/04
3.4
74
12/11
-8.1
5
12/18
-5.7
15
12/24
-3.4
29
01/01
-8.8
3
09/09
1.4
60
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
09/09
-5.8
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Colts Defense
Vikings logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
20
27
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
3
29

EPA

EPA / Play
14
26
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
4
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
8
22
Fumbles / Game
21
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Colts Offense vs Vikings Defense
Colts logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
20
16
Yards / Game
10
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10

EPA

EPA / Play
16
15
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
11
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
26
29
Fumbles / Game
11
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
24
RZ Efficiency
21
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
3
W
W
U
11/14
-38
L
L
O
11/20
-6
L
L
O
11/27
-10
L
P
U
12/04
-3
L
L
O
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
-22
L
L
O
12/24
7
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
L
U
09/09
3
W
L
O
IND logo

Colts

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
-17
L
L
U
11/06
-24
L
L
U
11/13
-14
L
L
U
11/27
-8
L
L
U
12/04
-7
L
W
O
12/11
-14
L
W
U
12/18
14
W
W
U
12/22
3
W
W
U
01/01
-6
L
L
U
09/09
-20
L
L
O