MINVikings
1-0
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
023
INDColts
0-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
3
0
14
20
Colts
7
10
3
3
23
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
278
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
232
194
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.19
Rushing Yards
95
84
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.63
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-13
-30
Sack EPA
-7.09
-3.18
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
105
51
Penalty EPA
-15.47
-5.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model50.6%
Spread Pick
Colts+3.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+3.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.9
Market Regression
-29.8
Final Difference
-4.0
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
20
27
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
3
29
EPA
EPA / Play
14
26
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
4
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
8
22
Fumbles / Game
21
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Colts Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
16
Yards / Game
10
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10
EPA
EPA / Play
16
15
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
11
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
26
29
Fumbles / Game
11
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
24
RZ Efficiency
21
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Colts
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U