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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ commanders week 16, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-12
33
TBD
FedExField
45°F
9 mph
26
WASCommanders
5-9
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
45°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
7
13
10
33
Commanders
0
10
10
6
26

Spread

MIN logo
+6

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
389
397
Total Plays
58
68
Yards / Play
6.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.07
Passing Yards
148
256
Comp/Att
12/18(67%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.56
-0.06
Rushing Yards
241
141
Rush Attempts
38
24
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.04
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-4
-28
Sack EPA
-1.40
-9.24
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
--
64
Penalty EPA
--
-8.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+157
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.5
Home QB Adjustment
-5.3
Away QB Adjustment
-6.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
Value
Ptile
10/23
-3.0
31
10/30
-1.6
38
11/14
-6.0
14
11/20
-2.7
33
11/27
-2.0
36
12/04
3.4
74
12/11
-8.1
5
12/18
-5.7
15
R. Grossman headshot

R. Grossman

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Value
Ptile
09/18
-0.6
47
09/26
-1.8
37
10/02
-5.6
16
10/16
-12.2
1
11/13
-6.1
14
11/20
4.4
79
11/27
2.8
71
12/04
-7.0
10
12/11
-0.4
49
12/18
-4.7
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Vikings logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
4
17

EPA

EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
29
19
EPA / Rush
2
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
12
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
24
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
12
RZ Efficiency
8
6
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Commanders logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
16
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
26
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10

EPA

EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
15
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
29
31
Fumbles / Game
24
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
26
RZ Efficiency
28
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
24
W
W
U
10/16
-29
L
L
O
10/23
-6
L
W
O
10/30
3
W
W
U
11/14
-38
L
L
O
11/20
-6
L
L
O
11/27
-10
L
P
U
12/04
-3
L
L
O
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
-22
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-7
L
L
U
10/23
-13
L
L
O
10/30
-23
L
L
U
11/06
-8
L
L
U
11/13
-11
L
L
U
11/20
-3
L
W
O
11/27
6
W
W
O
12/04
-15
L
L
O
12/11
-7
L
W
O
12/18
13
W
W
U