MINVikings
2-12
33
TBD
FedExField
45°F
9 mph
26
WASCommanders
5-9
TBD
FedExField
45°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
7
13
10
33
Commanders
0
10
10
6
26
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
397
Total Plays
58
68
Yards / Play
6.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.07
Passing Yards
148
256
Comp/Att
12/18(67%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.56
-0.06
Rushing Yards
241
141
Rush Attempts
38
24
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.04
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-4
-28
Sack EPA
-1.40
-9.24
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
--
64
Penalty EPA
--
-8.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+157
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.5
Home QB Adjustment
-5.3
Away QB Adjustment
-6.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
4
17
EPA
EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
29
19
EPA / Rush
2
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
12
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
24
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
12
RZ Efficiency
8
6
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
16
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
26
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10
EPA
EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
15
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
29
31
Fumbles / Game
24
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
26
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U