MINVikings
4-4
31
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
028
ATLFalcons
4-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
7
11
10
31
Falcons
3
6
10
7
26
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
370
Total Plays
74
67
Yards / Play
4.9
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.10
Passing Yards
219
260
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.04
Rushing Yards
146
110
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
44%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
7
10
3rd Down Attempts
16
18
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-12.91
-10.30
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-19
-8
Sack EPA
-14.48
-2.13
Penalties
1
8
Penalty Yards
--
62
Penalty EPA
--
-7.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,457
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+51.2
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
+122.2
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
-111.2
Market Regression
+46.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hall
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-111.2
No recent game data available
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
17
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
19
EPA
EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
17
14
EPA / Rush
17
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
20
Interceptions / Game
29
29
Fumbles / Game
29
21
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
12
RZ Efficiency
29
4
Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
12
Yards / Game
17
16
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
8
6
EPA
EPA / Play
27
16
EPA / Pass
23
21
EPA / Rush
25
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
27
19
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
24
4th Down Efficiency
29
32
RZ Efficiency
30
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U