MINVikings
3-2
37
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
16 mph
17
NYJJets
3-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
3
10
17
37
Jets
7
0
3
7
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
263
Total Plays
65
69
Yards / Play
4.9
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.43
Passing Yards
228
192
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
17/42(40%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.67
Rushing Yards
88
71
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
16
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
13%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-20.74
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-13
-14
Sack EPA
-1.84
-4.07
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
55
71
Penalty EPA
-5.49
-8.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-103
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+67.8
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-23.7
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+17.3
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
6
11
Rushing Yards / Game
29
26
EPA
EPA / Play
27
18
EPA / Pass
25
20
EPA / Rush
32
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
19
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
25
RZ Efficiency
21
9
Jets Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
29
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14
EPA
EPA / Play
29
2
EPA / Pass
27
1
EPA / Rush
31
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
6
RZ Efficiency
30
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-3-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U