MINVikings
3-4
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
024
DETLions
5-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
14
3
7
3
27
Lions
7
7
3
7
24
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
258
305
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
4.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.08
Passing Yards
116
240
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.11
Rushing Yards
142
65
Rush Attempts
29
20
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
33%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.51
-2.11
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-27
-44
Sack EPA
-8.43
-8.90
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
56
76
Penalty EPA
-5.86
-11.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+207
Home nfelo
1,636
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+42.5
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
+12.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-16.3
Market Regression
+17.0
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
J. McCarthy
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.3
Value
Ptile
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
27
5
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
24
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
31
11
Fumbles / Game
10
19
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
16
25
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
5
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
20
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
7
6
EPA / Pass
5
9
EPA / Rush
21
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
3
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
5
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U