MINVikings
6-4
13
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
016
DETLions
6-4
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
0
3
3
13
Lions
7
3
0
6
16
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
308
Total Plays
53
61
Yards / Play
5.8
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.06
Passing Yards
--
214
Comp/Att
31/37(84%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.10
Rushing Yards
82
94
Rush Attempts
16
19
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
20%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.45
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-3.76
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-3.76
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model47.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.7
Away QB Adjustment
+26.8
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
-15.7
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
13
Yards / Game
28
18
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
20
EPA
EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
22
29
Turnover EPA / Game
29
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
29
30
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19
EPA
EPA / Play
9
4
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
24
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U