nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ lions week 12, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIN logo
MINVikings
8-2
30
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
23
DETLions
6-4
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
13
7
7
3
30
Lions
0
10
6
7
23

Spread

MIN logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
408
289
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
5.6
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.14
Passing Yards
272
236
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.04
Rushing Yards
136
53
Rush Attempts
41
15
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.56
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
28
17
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
46%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.83
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-14
Sack EPA
-3.74
-5.09
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
74
54
Penalty EPA
-9.48
-11.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+32.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.6
Away QB Adjustment
-29.7
Market Regression
-32.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-29.7
Value
Ptile
11/06
-3.5
23
11/13
-5.5
14
09/17
-4.6
21
09/24
11.3
99
10/01
-3.6
26
10/15
0.6
56
10/22
-0.9
46
10/29
1.4
63
11/12
5.4
86
11/19
6.8
90
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Value
Ptile
09/10
7.6
92
09/18
-0.3
50
09/24
0.1
53
10/01
-7.5
10
10/08
-2.5
35
10/15
-7.9
8
10/29
5.1
84
11/06
7.5
92
11/12
-0.5
48
11/19
3.1
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
19

EPA

EPA / Play
11
4
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
26
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
7
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
23
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
21
RZ Efficiency
12
28
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
8
2
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2

EPA

EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
12
4
EPA / Rush
32
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
26
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
9
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
12
RZ Efficiency
14
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
10
W
W
O
09/17
-17
L
L
U
09/24
17
W
W
O
10/01
-7
L
L
U
10/09
3
W
L
U
10/15
13
W
W
U
10/22
8
W
W
O
10/29
17
W
W
O
11/12
8
W
W
O
11/19
17
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
12
W
W
O
09/18
14
W
W
U
09/24
-4
L
L
O
10/01
7
W
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-14
L
L
O
10/29
-5
L
L
U
11/06
13
W
W
O
11/12
14
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
P
O