MINVikings
8-2
30
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
023
DETLions
6-4
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
13
7
7
3
30
Lions
0
10
6
7
23
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
289
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
5.6
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.14
Passing Yards
272
236
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.04
Rushing Yards
136
53
Rush Attempts
41
15
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.56
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
17
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
46%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.83
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-14
Sack EPA
-3.74
-5.09
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
74
54
Penalty EPA
-9.48
-11.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+40.6
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
-25.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+32.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.6
Away QB Adjustment
-29.7
Market Regression
-31.3
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-29.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
19
EPA
EPA / Play
11
4
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
26
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
7
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
23
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
21
RZ Efficiency
12
28
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
2
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
12
4
EPA / Rush
32
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
26
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
9
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
12
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U