MINVikings
14-2
9
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
031
DETLions
14-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
6
3
0
9
Lions
7
3
7
14
31
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
56.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
262
394
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
4.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.05
Passing Yards
142
216
Comp/Att
18/41(44%)
27/33(82%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.61
+0.05
Rushing Yards
120
178
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
23%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.34
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-24
-15
Sack EPA
-4.50
-3.15
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
30
49
Penalty EPA
-6.93
-8.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,695
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+14.3
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+12.1
Home QB Adjustment
+34.5
Away QB Adjustment
+22.4
Market Regression
+8.3
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+34.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
11
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
16
Rushing Yards / Game
19
6
EPA
EPA / Play
17
7
EPA / Pass
17
6
EPA / Rush
23
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
18
7
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
2
14
Passing Yards / Game
10
31
Rushing Yards / Game
3
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
2
7
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
24
1
Fumbles / Game
2
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U