MIN logo
MIN
14-2
9
31
DET
14-2
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
6
3
0
9
Lions
7
3
7
14
31

Spread

DET logo
-3

Total

UNDER
56.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
262
394
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
4.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.05
Passing Yards
142
216
Comp/Att
18/41(44%)
27/33(82%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.61
+0.05
Rushing Yards
120
178
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
23%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.34
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-24
-15
Sack EPA
-4.50
-3.15
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
30
49
Penalty EPA
-6.93
-8.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+14.4
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+12.2
Home QB Adjustment
+34.5
Away QB Adjustment
+22.3
Market Regression
+8.2
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
9
11
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
16
Rushing Yards / Game
19
6

EPA

EPA / Play
17
7
EPA / Pass
17
6
EPA / Rush
23
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
18
7
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
2
14
Passing Yards / Game
10
31
Rushing Yards / Game
3
2

EPA

EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
2
7
EPA / Rush
6
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
24
1
Fumbles / Game
2
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
3
18