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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ packers week 2, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
1-0
29
TBD
Lambeau Field
80°F
5 mph
29
GBPackers
1-0
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
80°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
0
0
22
29
Packers
1
10
3
9
23

Spread

GB logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
482
351
Total Plays
69
70
Yards / Play
7.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
414
253
Comp/Att
35/49(71%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.04
Rushing Yards
68
98
Rush Attempts
18
24
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
67%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.33
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-28
Sack EPA
-4.08
-7.06
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
70
54
Penalty EPA
-9.43
-5.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,614
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.5
Home QB Adjustment
+17.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.9
Market Regression
-30.6
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Value
Ptile
11/05
-4.3
23
11/12
5.5
86
11/19
7.3
91
11/23
-5.7
16
11/30
-3.5
27
12/10
-3.4
28
12/17
2.3
69
12/24
3.4
77
12/31
-9.7
3
09/09
0.6
51
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Value
Ptile
01/15
2.7
70
01/22
4.8
82
09/10
-0.1
51
09/17
2.5
70
09/24
1.5
64
09/28
3.1
75
10/08
2.3
69
10/15
-5.5
17
12/17
-0.4
49
09/09
6.1
85

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
20
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
23

EPA

EPA / Play
27
24
EPA / Pass
25
30
EPA / Rush
32
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
10
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
29
28
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
10
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
14

EPA

EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
2
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
17
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
6
RZ Efficiency
14
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
17
W
W
U
11/23
7
W
W
O
12/03
5
W
W
U
12/10
-7
L
L
O
12/17
27
W
W
U
12/23
16
W
W
U
12/31
13
W
L
U
01/14
5
W
L
O
01/21
-31
L
L
O
09/09
8
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-13
L
L
O
11/12
7
W
W
O
11/19
-23
L
L
U
11/26
-3
L
W
O
12/03
6
W
W
O
12/10
6
W
W
O
12/17
-7
L
L
O
12/23
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-24
L
L
O
09/09
1
W
L
O