MINVikings
1-0
29
TBD
Lambeau Field
80°F
5 mph
29
GBPackers
1-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
80°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
0
0
22
29
Packers
1
10
3
9
23
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
482
351
Total Plays
69
70
Yards / Play
7.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
414
253
Comp/Att
35/49(71%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.04
Rushing Yards
68
98
Rush Attempts
18
24
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
67%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.33
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-28
Sack EPA
-4.08
-7.06
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
70
54
Penalty EPA
-9.43
-5.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.5
Home QB Adjustment
+17.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.9
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
20
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
23
EPA
EPA / Play
27
24
EPA / Pass
25
30
EPA / Rush
32
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
10
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
29
28
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
10
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
2
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
17
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
6
RZ Efficiency
14
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U