MINVikings
2-2
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
62°F
6 mph
42
GBPackers
2-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
62°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
0
10
10
Packers
14
8
14
0
36
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
320
Total Plays
75
52
Yards / Play
4.0
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.16
Passing Yards
188
164
Comp/Att
22/44(50%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.16
Rushing Yards
111
156
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.45
-4.29
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-34
-14
Sack EPA
-7.04
-3.12
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
91
30
Penalty EPA
-8.96
-3.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+193
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.8
Home QB Adjustment
+18.2
Away QB Adjustment
-7.6
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26
EPA
EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
13
23
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
6
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24
EPA
EPA / Play
3
14
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
12
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
2
19
Fumbles / Game
10
27
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-4-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
7-3
O/U