MINVikings
5-1
20
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
030
LARRams
2-4
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
14
0
3
3
20
Rams
7
7
7
7
28
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
386
Total Plays
50
66
Yards / Play
5.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.20
Passing Yards
212
--
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.47
Rushing Yards
64
107
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
29%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
7
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.35
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-28
--
Sack EPA
-5.50
--
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-7.82
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+59.9
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.8
Net QB Adjustment
-13.2
Home QB Adjustment
-18.3
Away QB Adjustment
-5.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
12
25
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28
EPA
EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
23
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
18
15
Fumbles / Game
19
25
Turnover EPA / Game
11
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
6
RZ Efficiency
19
4
Rams Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
31
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2
EPA
EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
27
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
28
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
1
RZ Efficiency
25
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U