MINVikings
12-2
27
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
5 mph
24
SEASeahawks
8-6
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
10
3
7
27
Seahawks
0
14
3
7
24
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
361
Total Plays
62
60
Yards / Play
4.8
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.06
Passing Yards
217
302
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.01
Rushing Yards
81
59
Rush Attempts
24
15
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
25%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.54
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-29
-12
Sack EPA
-4.42
-2.80
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
70
77
Penalty EPA
-0.23
-8.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-67
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+39.6
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.0
Home QB Adjustment
-9.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.0
Market Regression
+45.6
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
13
Yards / Game
12
13
Passing Yards / Game
3
9
Rushing Yards / Game
19
16
EPA
EPA / Play
17
10
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
23
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
5
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
29
6
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Seahawks Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
4
Yards / Game
15
14
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
28
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
2
EPA / Pass
21
7
EPA / Rush
18
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
2
4th Down Efficiency
21
1
RZ Efficiency
14
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U