MINVikings
7-2
23
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
7 mph
13
TENTitans
2-7
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
9
7
0
23
Titans
3
0
7
3
13
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
294
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
4.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.20
Passing Yards
236
261
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.06
Rushing Yards
82
33
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
2.5
1.7
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.51
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
11
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
6
--
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.19
-1.54
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-10
-34
Sack EPA
-3.88
-8.27
Penalties
3
12
Penalty Yards
--
91
Penalty EPA
--
-14.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-147
Home nfelo
1,396
Away nfelo
1,584
Home Field
+55.9
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.9
Home QB Adjustment
-21.9
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-21.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
30
Yards / Game
12
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25
EPA
EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
17
18
EPA / Rush
23
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
19
24
Titans Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
26
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
30
7
EPA / Rush
29
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
4
Interceptions / Game
31
1
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
30
1
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U