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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ titans week 11, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
7-2
23
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
7 mph
13
TENTitans
2-7
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
9
7
0
23
Titans
3
0
7
3
13

Spread

MIN logo
-6

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
318
294
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
4.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.20
Passing Yards
236
261
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.06
Rushing Yards
82
33
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
2.5
1.7
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.51
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
23
11
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
6
--
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.19
-1.54
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-10
-34
Sack EPA
-3.88
-8.27
Penalties
3
12
Penalty Yards
--
91
Penalty EPA
--
-14.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-150
Home nfelo
1,392
Away nfelo
1,584
Home Field
+55.9
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.9
Home QB Adjustment
-21.9
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
Value
Ptile
01/07
0.2
51
09/08
1.5
59
09/15
1.7
61
09/22
0.1
49
09/29
4.0
75
10/06
-8.2
5
10/20
0.9
54
10/24
0.9
55
11/03
0.9
55
11/10
-6.7
9
W. Levis headshot

W. Levis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-21.9
Value
Ptile
12/03
-6.3
12
12/11
2.0
63
12/17
-6.4
12
12/31
-8.2
8
09/08
-6.5
10
09/15
-0.6
45
09/22
-5.4
14
09/30
-7.0
8
10/13
-4.4
20
11/10
-1.4
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Titans Defense
Vikings logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
9
30
Yards / Game
12
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25

EPA

EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
17
18
EPA / Rush
23
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
19
24
Titans Offense vs Vikings Defense
Titans logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
26
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2

EPA

EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
30
7
EPA / Rush
29
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
4
Interceptions / Game
31
1
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
30
1
RZ Efficiency
24
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
-10
L
L
O
09/08
22
W
W
U
09/15
6
W
W
U
09/22
27
W
W
U
09/29
2
W
W
O
10/06
6
W
W
U
10/20
-2
L
L
O
10/24
-10
L
L
O
11/03
8
W
W
U
11/10
5
W
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
8
W
W
O
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
-16
L
L
O
09/30
19
W
W
O
10/13
-3
L
L
U
10/20
-24
L
L
O
10/27
-38
L
L
O
11/03
3
W
P
U
11/10
-10
L
L
O