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  4. 2019
ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2019 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
149614th
Point Diff / Game
-1.118th
Net EPA / Play
-0.01717th

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIN logo
MIN@
L
12-28
-16
+4
L
-15
2
PHI logo
PHI
W
24-20
+4
+1
W
-0
3
IND logo
IND@
L
24-27
-3
+1
L
15
4
TEN logo
TEN
L
10-24
-14
-3.5
L
-29
5
HOU logo
HOU@
L
32-53
-21
+4
L
-7
6
ARI logo
ARI@
L
33-34
-1
-3
L
10
7
LAR logo
LAR
L
10-37
-27
+3
L
-166
8
SEA logo
SEA
L
20-27
-7
+7.5
W
101
9BYE WEEK
10
NO logo
NO@
W
26-09
+17
+13.5
W
7
11
CAR logo
CAR@
W
29-03
+26
+3.5
W
13
12
TB logo
TB
L
22-35
-13
-3.5
L
-27
13
NO logo
NO
L
18-26
-8
+7
L
-6
14
CAR logo
CAR
W
40-20
+20
-3.5
W
55
15
SF logo
SF@
W
29-22
+7
+10
W
27
16
JAX logo
JAX
W
24-12
+12
-7.5
W
9
17
TB logo
TB@
W
28-22
+6
+1
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.01
13th
EPA / Pass
+0.05
15th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
23rd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
21st
EPA / Pass
+0.14
24th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
15th
Sack EPA
-6.17
29th
Turnover EPA
-6.72
10th
Point Differential
-1.1
18th
Points For
23.8
13th
Points Against
24.9
22nd
Total Yards
379.9
5th
Passing Yards
275.9
2nd
Rushing Yards
85.1
30th
Total Yards Allowed
356.1
20th
Passing Allowed
133.7
1st
Rushing Allowed
111.1
15th

Conversions For

3rd Down
42%
10th
4th Down
62%
4th
Red Zone
52%
25th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
21st
4th Down
60%
26th
Red Zone
58%
19th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
21st
Created
1.3
18th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
21st
Created
0.8
18th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
18th
Created
0.6
14th