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  4. 2023
ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2023 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-10
nfelo Rating
144422nd
Point Diff / Game
-3.123rd
Net EPA / Play
-0.05624th

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CAR logo
CAR
W
24-10
+14
-3.5
W
9
2
GB logo
GB
W
25-24
+1
-3
L
7
3
DET logo
DET@
L
06-20
-14
+3
L
-21
4
JAX logo
JAX@
L
07-23
-16
+3.5
L
-39
5
HOU logo
HOU
W
21-19
+2
-2.5
L
9
6
WAS logo
WAS
L
16-24
-8
-1.5
L
-20
7
TB logo
TB@
W
16-13
+3
+3
W
17
8
TEN logo
TEN@
L
23-28
-5
-2.5
L
7
9
MIN logo
MIN
L
28-31
-3
-3.5
L
-10
10
ARI logo
ARI@
L
23-25
-2
-2
L
-15
11BYE WEEK
12
NO logo
NO
W
24-15
+9
+1
W
20
13
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
13-08
+5
-2
W
0
14
TB logo
TB
L
25-29
-4
-1
L
-13
15
CAR logo
CAR@
L
07-09
-2
-2.5
L
-6
16
IND logo
IND
W
29-10
+19
-3
W
28
17
CHI logo
CHI@
L
17-37
-20
+2.5
L
-27
18
NO logo
NO@
L
17-48
-31
+3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.11
27th
EPA / Pass
-0.09
23rd
EPA / Rush
-0.12
25th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.06
12th
EPA / Pass
-0.01
14th
EPA / Rush
-0.14
3rd
Sack EPA
-4.08
12th
Turnover EPA
-8.26
6th
Point Differential
-3.1
23rd
Points For
18.9
26th
Points Against
21.9
17th
Total Yards
334.5
17th
Passing Yards
167.9
27th
Rushing Yards
127.0
8th
Total Yards Allowed
321.2
10th
Passing Allowed
174.1
10th
Rushing Allowed
118.2
19th

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
13th
4th Down
42%
29th
Red Zone
47%
30th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
34%
3rd
4th Down
48%
12th
Red Zone
45%
4th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
26th
Created
0.9
28th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.0
27th
Created
0.5
29th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
22nd
Created
0.5
21st