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  4. 2022
BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2022 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
14-4
nfelo Rating
16463rd
Point Diff / Game
+8.63rd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1503rd

2022 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAR logo
LAR@
W
31-10
+21
-2
W
47
2
TEN logo
TEN
W
41-07
+34
-10
W
17
3
MIA logo
MIA@
L
19-21
-2
-4
L
-6
4
BAL logo
BAL@
W
23-20
+3
-3
P
6
5
PIT logo
PIT
W
38-03
+35
-14
W
20
6
KC logo
KC@
W
24-20
+4
-2.5
W
6
7BYE WEEK
8
GB logo
GB
W
27-17
+10
-10.5
L
-13
9
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
17-20
-3
-11
L
-20
10
MIN logo
MIN
L
30-33
-3
-7
L
-23
11
CLE logo
CLE
W
31-23
+8
-7.5
W
-9
12
DET logo
DET@
W
28-25
+3
-9.5
L
-9
13
NE logo
NE@
W
24-10
+14
-4
W
9
14
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
20-12
+8
-9
L
-14
15
MIA logo
MIA
W
32-29
+3
-7
L
2
16
CHI logo
CHI@
W
35-13
+22
-8
W
8
17BYE WEEK
18
NE logo
NE
W
35-23
+12
-8
W
9
19
MIA logo
MIA
W
34-31
+3
-14
L
-19
20
CIN logo
CIN
L
10-27
-17
-6
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.09
3rd
EPA / Pass
+0.11
5th
EPA / Rush
+0.03
7th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.06
6th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
12th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
7th
Sack EPA
-4.01
15th
Turnover EPA
-7.92
2nd
Point Differential
+8.6
3rd
Points For
27.7
3rd
Points Against
19.1
4th
Total Yards
395.2
2nd
Passing Yards
237.6
2nd
Rushing Yards
133.6
8th
Total Yards Allowed
319.6
7th
Passing Allowed
214.7
25th
Rushing Allowed
104.9
6th

Conversions For

3rd Down
50%
1st
4th Down
50%
16th
Red Zone
60%
9th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
6th
4th Down
57%
22nd
Red Zone
45%
2nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.7
31st
Created
1.6
3rd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
26th
Created
1.1
4th

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
31st
Created
0.6
13th