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  4. 2016
CAR logo

Carolina Panthers

2016 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
152814th
Point Diff / Game
-2.125th
Net EPA / Play
-0.03223rd

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
DEN logo
DEN@
L
20-21
-1
-3
L
-5
2
SF logo
SF
W
46-27
+19
-12.5
W
24
3
MIN logo
MIN
L
10-22
-12
-6.5
L
-28
4
ATL logo
ATL@
L
33-48
-15
-3
L
-163
5
TB logo
TB
L
14-17
-3
-6
L
150
6
NO logo
NO@
L
38-41
-3
-2.5
L
-5
7BYE WEEK
8
ARI logo
ARI
W
30-20
+10
-2.5
W
4
9
LAR logo
LAR@
W
13-10
+3
-3
P
4
10
KC logo
KC
L
17-20
-3
-3
L
-4
11
NO logo
NO
W
23-20
+3
-3.5
L
-10
12
OAK logo
OAK@
L
32-35
-3
+3.5
W
-115
13
SEA logo
SEA@
L
07-40
-33
+8.5
L
113
14
LAC logo
LAC
W
28-16
+12
-1
W
-4
15
WAS logo
WAS@
W
26-15
+11
+7
W
12
16
ATL logo
ATL
L
16-33
-17
+3
L
-43
17
TB logo
TB@
L
16-17
-1
+3.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.07
22nd
EPA / Pass
-0.05
25th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
14th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.04
11th
EPA / Pass
+0.05
17th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
12th
Sack EPA
-4.12
22nd
Turnover EPA
-8.06
5th
Point Differential
-2.1
25th
Points For
23.1
15th
Points Against
25.1
26th
Total Yards
344.1
19th
Passing Yards
201.8
18th
Rushing Yards
113.5
10th
Total Yards Allowed
360.3
21st
Passing Allowed
268.6
32nd
Rushing Allowed
91.7
7th

Conversions For

3rd Down
37%
21st
4th Down
65%
7th
Red Zone
60%
11th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
11th
4th Down
69%
27th
Red Zone
44%
2nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.8
25th
Created
1.8
3rd

Interceptions

Thrown
1.2
28th
Created
1.1
4th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
16th
Created
0.7
8th