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CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2016 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
3-13
nfelo Rating
140127th
Point Diff / Game
-7.528th
Net EPA / Play
-0.14428th

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
HOU logo
HOU@
L
14-23
-9
+6
L
-15
2
PHI logo
PHI
L
14-29
-15
-3
L
-86
3
DAL logo
DAL@
L
17-31
-14
+6.5
L
8
4
DET logo
DET
W
17-14
+3
+3.5
W
21
5
IND logo
IND@
L
23-29
-6
+4
L
29
6
JAX logo
JAX
L
16-17
-1
-2.5
L
5
7
GB logo
GB@
L
10-26
-16
+7.5
L
-8
8
MIN logo
MIN
W
20-10
+10
+5.5
W
22
9BYE WEEK
10
TB logo
TB@
L
10-36
-26
-2.5
L
-22
11
NYG logo
NYG@
L
16-22
-6
+7
W
-23
12
TEN logo
TEN
L
21-27
-6
+6.5
W
-10
13
SF logo
SF
W
26-06
+20
+1
W
14
14
DET logo
DET@
L
17-20
-3
+7.5
W
16
15
GB logo
GB
L
27-30
-3
+4.5
W
18
16
WAS logo
WAS
L
21-41
-20
+3
L
-13
17
MIN logo
MIN@
L
10-38
-28
+6.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.09
26th
EPA / Pass
-0.00
22nd
EPA / Rush
-0.10
22nd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
26th
EPA / Pass
+0.11
24th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
32nd
Sack EPA
-3.89
17th
Turnover EPA
-8.76
4th
Point Differential
-7.5
28th
Points For
17.4
29th
Points Against
24.9
23rd
Total Yards
356.5
14th
Passing Yards
203.5
17th
Rushing Yards
108.4
16th
Total Yards Allowed
346.9
14th
Passing Allowed
148.7
2nd
Rushing Allowed
121.9
26th

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
19th
4th Down
29%
31st
Red Zone
51%
22nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
22nd
4th Down
71%
28th
Red Zone
52%
10th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
29th
Created
0.8
31st

Interceptions

Thrown
1.2
28th
Created
0.5
29th

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
25th
Created
0.3
30th