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  4. 2024
CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2024 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-12
nfelo Rating
144823rd
Point Diff / Game
-3.522nd
Net EPA / Play
-0.08224th

2024 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
TEN logo
TEN
W
24-17
+7
-4
W
2
2
HOU logo
HOU@
L
13-19
-6
+6
P
-14
3
IND logo
IND@
L
16-21
-5
+2
L
-1
4
LAR logo
LAR
W
24-18
+6
-3
W
18
5
CAR logo
CAR
W
36-10
+26
-4
W
29
6
JAX logo
JAX
W
35-16
+19
+1
W
22
7BYE WEEK
8
WAS logo
WAS@
L
15-18
-3
+1.5
L
-12
9
ARI logo
ARI@
L
09-29
-20
+1.5
L
-21
10
NE logo
NE
L
03-19
-16
-6.5
L
-25
11
GB logo
GB
L
19-20
-1
+6
W
16
12
MIN logo
MIN
L
27-30
-3
+3
P
12
13
DET logo
DET@
L
20-23
-3
+9.5
W
24
14
SF logo
SF@
L
13-38
-25
+3
L
-14
15
MIN logo
MIN@
L
12-30
-18
+7
L
-17
16
DET logo
DET
L
17-34
-17
+7
L
1
17
SEA logo
SEA
L
03-06
-3
+3.5
W
-35
18
GB logo
GB@
W
24-22
+2
+10
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.07
27th
EPA / Pass
-0.11
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
20th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
17th
EPA / Pass
+0.00
10th
EPA / Rush
+0.00
23rd
Sack EPA
-6.91
32nd
Turnover EPA
-3.94
24th
Point Differential
-3.5
22nd
Points For
18.2
28th
Points Against
21.8
14th
Total Yards
283.9
32nd
Passing Yards
181.9
20th
Rushing Yards
102.0
24th
Total Yards Allowed
354.2
27th
Passing Allowed
217.9
29th
Rushing Allowed
136.3
27th

Conversions For

3rd Down
33%
31st
4th Down
61%
12th
Red Zone
61%
9th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
12th
4th Down
47%
5th
Red Zone
46%
3rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
5th
Created
1.5
7th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
6th
Created
0.6
18th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
13th
Created
0.8
3rd