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  4. 2021
CLE logo

Cleveland Browns

2021 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-9
nfelo Rating
153415th
Point Diff / Game
-1.320th
Net EPA / Play
-0.03521st

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
KC logo
KC@
L
29-33
-4
+5
W
12
2
HOU logo
HOU
W
31-21
+10
-13.5
L
-1
3
CHI logo
CHI
W
26-06
+20
-7.5
W
22
4
MIN logo
MIN@
W
14-07
+7
14
5
LAC logo
LAC@
L
42-47
-5
+2.5
L
7
6
ARI logo
ARI
L
14-37
-23
-3
L
-47
7
DEN logo
DEN
W
17-14
+3
-1.5
W
34
8
PIT logo
PIT
L
10-15
-5
-5.5
L
-11
9
CIN logo
CIN@
W
41-16
+25
+1
W
13
10
NE logo
NE@
L
07-45
-38
+1
L
-23
11
DET logo
DET
W
13-10
+3
-13
L
-39
12
BAL logo
BAL@
L
10-16
-6
+3
L
4
13BYE WEEK
14
BAL logo
BAL
W
24-22
+2
-3
L
25
15
OAK logo
OAK
L
14-16
-2
+2.5
W
-32
16
GB logo
GB@
L
22-24
-2
+7.5
W
1
17
PIT logo
PIT@
L
14-26
-12
-3.5
L
36
18
CIN logo
CIN
W
21-16
+5
-6.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.03
20th
EPA / Pass
-0.05
22nd
EPA / Rush
+0.05
4th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.00
21st
EPA / Pass
-0.03
11th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
25th
Sack EPA
-5.95
30th
Turnover EPA
-5.03
21st
Point Differential
-1.3
20th
Points For
20.5
20th
Points Against
21.8
14th
Total Yards
341.0
18th
Passing Yards
175.7
28th
Rushing Yards
145.5
4th
Total Yards Allowed
311.6
3rd
Passing Allowed
186.0
8th
Rushing Allowed
109.2
11th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
18th
4th Down
41%
30th
Red Zone
62%
12th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
14th
4th Down
64%
27th
Red Zone
65%
28th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
16th
Created
1.1
23rd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
14th
Created
0.8
17th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
20th
Created
0.3
30th