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  4. 2013
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2013 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
15-4
nfelo Rating
17361st
Point Diff / Game
+9.92nd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1432nd

2013 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BAL logo
BAL
W
49-27
+22
-7.5
W
31
2
NYG logo
NYG@
W
41-23
+18
-3.5
W
15
3
OAK logo
OAK
W
37-21
+16
-14.5
W
19
4
PHI logo
PHI
W
52-20
+32
-10.5
W
16
5
DAL logo
DAL@
W
51-48
+3
-7.5
L
8
6
JAX logo
JAX
W
35-19
+16
-27
L
-16
7
IND logo
IND@
L
33-39
-6
-6.5
L
-15
8
WAS logo
WAS
W
45-21
+24
-11
W
0
9BYE WEEK
10
LAC logo
LAC@
W
28-20
+8
-7
W
3
11
KC logo
KC
W
27-17
+10
-7.5
W
3
12
NE logo
NE@
L
31-34
-3
-1
L
-24
13
KC logo
KC@
W
35-28
+7
-5
W
6
14
TEN logo
TEN
W
51-28
+23
-12.5
W
17
15
LAC logo
LAC
L
20-27
-7
-10
L
-17
16
HOU logo
HOU@
W
37-13
+24
-10
W
61
17
OAK logo
OAK@
W
34-14
+20
-10
W
11
18BYE WEEK
19
LAC logo
LAC
W
24-17
+7
-8
L
-24
20
NE logo
NE
W
26-16
+10
-5
W
9
21
SEA logo
SEA
L
08-43
-35
-1.5
L
-83

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.19
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.32
1st
EPA / Rush
-0.06
19th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
23rd
EPA / Pass
+0.08
23rd
EPA / Rush
-0.12
4th
Sack EPA
-2.25
1st
Turnover EPA
-6.61
15th
Point Differential
+9.9
2nd
Points For
34.9
1st
Points Against
25.0
22nd
Total Yards
447.1
1st
Passing Yards
188.7
24th
Rushing Yards
112.6
16th
Total Yards Allowed
348.3
18th
Passing Allowed
222.6
23rd
Rushing Allowed
99.5
5th

Conversions For

3rd Down
48%
1st
4th Down
69%
4th
Red Zone
71%
2nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
19th
4th Down
30%
4th
Red Zone
61%
25th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
14th
Created
1.6
16th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
7th
Created
0.9
18th

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
25th
Created
0.7
8th