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  4. 2019
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2019 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
147018th
Point Diff / Game
-2.121st
Net EPA / Play
-0.03821st

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
OAK logo
OAK@
L
16-24
-8
+1.5
L
-13
2
CHI logo
CHI
L
14-16
-2
+2.5
W
7
3
GB logo
GB@
L
16-27
-11
+7
L
-14
4
JAX logo
JAX
L
24-26
-2
-2.5
L
-1
5
LAC logo
LAC@
W
20-13
+7
+4.5
W
32
6
TEN logo
TEN
W
16-00
+16
-1
W
6
7
KC logo
KC
L
06-30
-24
+3
L
-20
8
IND logo
IND@
L
13-15
-2
+6
W
-72
9
CLE logo
CLE
W
24-19
+5
+4
W
19
10BYE WEEK
11
MIN logo
MIN@
L
23-27
-4
+10
W
20
12
BUF logo
BUF@
L
03-20
-17
+4
L
61
13
LAC logo
LAC
W
23-20
+3
+4.5
W
10
14
HOU logo
HOU@
W
38-24
+14
+8
W
22
15
KC logo
KC@
L
03-23
-20
+9.5
L
-24
16
DET logo
DET
W
27-17
+10
-8
W
3
17
OAK logo
OAK
W
16-15
+1
-4.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.07
24th
EPA / Pass
-0.07
25th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
18th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.03
15th
EPA / Pass
+0.01
14th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
19th
Sack EPA
-4.95
21st
Turnover EPA
-4.69
26th
Point Differential
-2.1
21st
Points For
17.6
28th
Points Against
19.8
8th
Total Yards
298.7
28th
Passing Yards
155.1
31st
Rushing Yards
103.9
20th
Total Yards Allowed
337.1
12th
Passing Allowed
174.1
6th
Rushing Allowed
111.4
16th

Conversions For

3rd Down
32%
30th
4th Down
69%
1st
Red Zone
48%
27th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
11th
4th Down
47%
15th
Red Zone
39%
1st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
6th
Created
1.0
28th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
12th
Created
0.6
25th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
4th
Created
0.4
28th