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  4. 2020
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2020 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-11
nfelo Rating
138926th
Point Diff / Game
-7.729th
Net EPA / Play
-0.13329th

2020 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
TEN logo
TEN
L
14-16
-2
+3
W
7
2
PIT logo
PIT@
L
21-26
-5
+6.5
W
-47
3
TB logo
TB
L
10-28
-18
+6
L
-90
4
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
37-28
+9
+1
W
121
5BYE WEEK
6
NE logo
NE@
W
18-12
+6
+7
W
0
7
KC logo
KC
L
16-43
-27
+7
L
-12
8
LAC logo
LAC
W
31-30
+1
+3
W
10
9
ATL logo
ATL@
L
27-34
-7
+4.5
L
-7
10
OAK logo
OAK@
L
12-37
-25
+3.5
L
-28
11
MIA logo
MIA
W
20-13
+7
+4
W
-78
12
NO logo
NO
L
03-31
-28
+17
L
6
13
KC logo
KC@
L
16-22
-6
+13
W
21
14
CAR logo
CAR@
W
32-27
+5
+4
W
31
15
BUF logo
BUF
L
19-48
-29
+6
L
-13
16
LAC logo
LAC@
L
16-19
-3
+2.5
L
-5
17
OAK logo
OAK
L
31-32
-1
+3
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.09
31st
EPA / Pass
-0.13
30th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
26th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.04
20th
EPA / Pass
+0.05
14th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
22nd
Sack EPA
-4.04
17th
Turnover EPA
-9.07
1st
Point Differential
-7.7
29th
Points For
20.2
28th
Points Against
27.9
25th
Total Yards
335.8
24th
Passing Yards
161.0
29th
Rushing Yards
119.9
13th
Total Yards Allowed
368.1
20th
Passing Allowed
228.4
27th
Rushing Allowed
130.0
25th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
25th
4th Down
27%
32nd
Red Zone
53%
27th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
12th
4th Down
50%
12th
Red Zone
47%
1st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
2.1
32nd
Created
0.9
29th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.4
32nd
Created
0.6
23rd

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
23rd
Created
0.3
28th