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  4. 2024
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2024 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
10-8
nfelo Rating
16595th
Point Diff / Game
+5.07th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0978th

2024 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
SEA logo
SEA@
L
20-26
-6
+6.5
W
-6
2
PIT logo
PIT
L
06-13
-7
+2.5
L
-13
3
TB logo
TB@
W
26-07
+19
+6
W
31
4
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
10-09
+1
+7.5
W
7
5
OAK logo
OAK
W
34-18
+16
-3
W
26
6
LAC logo
LAC
L
16-23
-7
+3
L
-23
7
NO logo
NO@
W
33-10
+23
-2.5
W
39
8
CAR logo
CAR
W
28-14
+14
-12.5
W
10
9
BAL logo
BAL@
L
10-41
-31
+9
L
-19
10
KC logo
KC@
L
14-16
-2
+7.5
W
13
11
ATL logo
ATL
W
38-06
+32
-2
W
29
12
OAK logo
OAK@
W
29-19
+10
-5.5
W
16
13
CLE logo
CLE
W
41-32
+9
-6
W
-2
14BYE WEEK
15
IND logo
IND
W
31-13
+18
-4
W
0
16
LAC logo
LAC@
L
27-34
-7
+2.5
L
-1
17
CIN logo
CIN@
L
24-30
-6
+3.5
L
-0
18
KC logo
KC
W
38-00
+38
-10.5
W
110
19
BUF logo
BUF@
L
07-31
-24
+7.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.03
12th
EPA / Pass
+0.03
16th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
15th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.07
3rd
EPA / Pass
-0.10
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.10
4th
Sack EPA
-2.41
3rd
Turnover EPA
-3.82
25th
Point Differential
+5.0
7th
Points For
24.0
10th
Points Against
19.0
3rd
Total Yards
319.0
22nd
Passing Yards
150.0
27th
Rushing Yards
110.4
17th
Total Yards Allowed
326.1
10th
Passing Allowed
223.3
30th
Rushing Allowed
102.8
5th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
18th
4th Down
64%
9th
Red Zone
61%
8th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
13th
4th Down
56%
15th
Red Zone
44%
1st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
11th
Created
1.3
11th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
15th
Created
0.8
11th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
12th
Created
0.5
13th