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DET logo

Detroit Lions

2020 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-11
nfelo Rating
134529th
Point Diff / Game
-8.930th
Net EPA / Play
-0.16330th

2020 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CHI logo
CHI
L
23-27
-4
-2
L
-8
2
GB logo
GB@
L
21-42
-21
+6.5
L
-38
3
ARI logo
ARI@
W
26-23
+3
+5
W
6
4
NO logo
NO
L
29-35
-6
+3
L
-1
5BYE WEEK
6
JAX logo
JAX@
W
34-16
+18
-3
W
8
7
ATL logo
ATL@
W
23-22
+1
+1
W
14
8
IND logo
IND
L
21-41
-20
+3
L
-11
9
MIN logo
MIN@
L
20-34
-14
+3.5
L
-20
10
WAS logo
WAS
W
30-27
+3
-3
P
13
11
CAR logo
CAR@
L
00-20
-20
-3
L
-66
12
HOU logo
HOU
L
25-41
-16
+3
L
-14
13
CHI logo
CHI@
W
34-30
+4
+3
W
16
14
GB logo
GB
L
24-31
-7
+8.5
W
16
15
TEN logo
TEN@
L
25-46
-21
+9
L
-17
16
TB logo
TB
L
07-47
-40
+12
L
-41
17
MIN logo
MIN
L
35-37
-2
+3
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.01
20th
EPA / Pass
+0.05
18th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
29th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.15
32nd
EPA / Pass
+0.31
32nd
EPA / Rush
+0.04
29th
Sack EPA
-4.22
19th
Turnover EPA
-6.74
7th
Point Differential
-8.9
30th
Points For
23.6
20th
Points Against
32.4
32nd
Total Yards
350.4
20th
Passing Yards
223.6
9th
Rushing Yards
93.7
30th
Total Yards Allowed
420.4
32nd
Passing Allowed
267.0
32nd
Rushing Allowed
135.3
28th

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
15th
4th Down
50%
24th
Red Zone
65%
10th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
47%
28th
4th Down
61%
22nd
Red Zone
72%
31st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
15th
Created
0.8
31st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
17th
Created
0.4
30th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
12th
Created
0.4
27th