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  4. 2024
DET logo

Detroit Lions

2024 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
15-3
nfelo Rating
17332nd
Point Diff / Game
+11.61st
Net EPA / Play
+0.1972nd

2024 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAR logo
LAR
W
26-20
+6
-5.5
W
9
2
TB logo
TB
L
16-20
-4
-7.5
L
-13
3
ARI logo
ARI@
W
20-13
+7
-3
W
20
4
SEA logo
SEA
W
42-29
+13
-3.5
W
18
5BYE WEEK
6
DAL logo
DAL@
W
47-09
+38
-3.5
W
35
7
MIN logo
MIN@
W
31-29
+2
+1.5
W
1
8
TEN logo
TEN
W
52-14
+38
-12.5
W
18
9
GB logo
GB@
W
24-14
+10
-2.5
W
7
10
HOU logo
HOU@
W
26-23
+3
-3.5
L
-18
11
JAX logo
JAX
W
52-06
+46
-13.5
W
35
12
IND logo
IND@
W
24-06
+18
-7
W
3
13
CHI logo
CHI
W
23-20
+3
-9.5
L
-19
14
GB logo
GB
W
34-31
+3
-3.5
L
3
15
BUF logo
BUF
L
42-48
-6
-2.5
L
5
16
CHI logo
CHI@
W
34-17
+17
-7
W
15
17
SF logo
SF@
W
40-34
+6
-4
W
12
18
MIN logo
MIN
W
31-09
+22
-3
W
4
19BYE WEEK
20
WAS logo
WAS
L
31-45
-14
-8.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.17
3rd
EPA / Pass
+0.26
2nd
EPA / Rush
+0.04
6th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.03
7th
EPA / Pass
-0.06
6th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
17th
Sack EPA
-3.63
9th
Turnover EPA
-5.13
15th
Point Differential
+11.6
1st
Points For
33.1
1st
Points Against
21.5
11th
Total Yards
415.8
2nd
Passing Yards
210.2
10th
Rushing Yards
149.4
3rd
Total Yards Allowed
350.2
26th
Passing Allowed
185.6
16th
Rushing Allowed
103.0
6th

Conversions For

3rd Down
47%
4th
4th Down
69%
4th
Red Zone
68%
3rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
32%
1st
4th Down
45%
4th
Red Zone
54%
12th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
11th
Created
1.3
11th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
24th
Created
0.9
7th

Fumbles

Lost
0.2
2nd
Created
0.4
18th