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  4. 2012
HOU logo

Houston Texans

2012 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
13-5
nfelo Rating
15747th
Point Diff / Game
+4.310th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0749th

2012 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIA logo
MIA
W
30-10
+20
-13
W
50
2
JAX logo
JAX@
W
27-07
+20
-6.5
W
10
3
DEN logo
DEN@
W
31-25
+6
-1.5
W
8
4
TEN logo
TEN
W
38-14
+24
-13
W
40
5
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
23-17
+6
-9.5
L
-8
6
GB logo
GB
L
24-42
-18
-4
L
-36
7
BAL logo
BAL
W
43-13
+30
-6.5
W
19
8BYE WEEK
9
BUF logo
BUF
W
21-09
+12
-11
W
6
10
CHI logo
CHI@
W
13-06
+7
+1
W
-4
11
JAX logo
JAX
W
43-37
+6
-15.5
L
2
12
DET logo
DET@
W
34-31
+3
-3.5
L
-3
13
TEN logo
TEN@
W
24-10
+14
-7
W
2
14
NE logo
NE@
L
14-42
-28
+5.5
L
-37
15
IND logo
IND
W
29-17
+12
-10.5
W
1
16
MIN logo
MIN
L
06-23
-17
-7.5
L
-53
17
IND logo
IND@
L
16-28
-12
-6.5
L
-16
18
CIN logo
CIN
W
19-13
+6
-4
W
6
19
NE logo
NE@
L
28-41
-13
+9.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.05
11th
EPA / Pass
+0.12
9th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
14th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.03
6th
EPA / Pass
-0.09
4th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
7th
Sack EPA
-2.72
6th
Turnover EPA
-4.27
28th
Point Differential
+4.3
10th
Points For
25.7
11th
Points Against
21.4
9th
Total Yards
377.8
6th
Passing Yards
186.3
20th
Rushing Yards
131.8
8th
Total Yards Allowed
323.7
7th
Passing Allowed
218.4
26th
Rushing Allowed
97.9
6th

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
18th
4th Down
58%
10th
Red Zone
55%
14th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
32%
2nd
4th Down
33%
3rd
Red Zone
51%
10th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
3rd
Created
1.7
11th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
11th
Created
0.9
16th

Fumbles

Lost
0.2
1st
Created
0.8
8th