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HOU logo

Houston Texans

2021 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-13
nfelo Rating
129630th
Point Diff / Game
-10.130th
Net EPA / Play
-0.19730th

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
JAX logo
JAX
W
37-21
+16
+3.5
W
24
2
CLE logo
CLE@
L
21-31
-10
+13.5
W
-54
3
CAR logo
CAR
L
09-24
-15
+8
L
-22
4
BUF logo
BUF@
L
00-40
-40
+18.5
L
-28
5
NE logo
NE
L
22-25
-3
+8
W
35
6
IND logo
IND@
L
03-31
-28
+10
L
-8
7
ARI logo
ARI@
L
05-31
-26
+20.5
L
-33
8
LAR logo
LAR
L
22-38
-16
+16.5
W
69
9
MIA logo
MIA@
L
09-17
-8
+3.5
L
-15
10BYE WEEK
11
TEN logo
TEN@
W
22-13
+9
+10.5
W
24
12
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
14-21
-7
-2.5
L
-16
13
IND logo
IND
L
00-31
-31
+10
L
-31
14
SEA logo
SEA
L
13-33
-20
+9.5
L
-9
15
JAX logo
JAX@
W
30-16
+14
+6
W
14
16
LAC logo
LAC
W
41-29
+12
+13
W
22
17
SF logo
SF@
L
07-23
-16
+12
L
-8
18
TEN logo
TEN
L
25-28
-3
+10.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.15
30th
EPA / Pass
-0.14
28th
EPA / Rush
-0.16
30th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.04
26th
EPA / Pass
+0.14
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
17th
Sack EPA
-4.36
18th
Turnover EPA
-4.95
22nd
Point Differential
-10.1
30th
Points For
16.5
30th
Points Against
26.6
27th
Total Yards
278.3
32nd
Passing Yards
188.2
22nd
Rushing Yards
83.8
32nd
Total Yards Allowed
384.8
31st
Passing Allowed
227.0
26th
Rushing Allowed
142.4
31st

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
16th
4th Down
43%
27th
Red Zone
51%
27th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
26th
4th Down
58%
20th
Red Zone
61%
20th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
16th
Created
1.4
13th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
21st
Created
1.0
8th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
13th
Created
0.4
18th