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IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2016 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-8
nfelo Rating
151315th
Point Diff / Game
+1.214th
Net EPA / Play
+0.02113th

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
DET logo
DET
L
35-39
-4
-2.5
L
4
2
DEN logo
DEN@
L
20-34
-14
+6
L
-19
3
LAC logo
LAC
W
26-22
+4
-1.5
W
2
4
JAX logo
JAX@
L
27-30
-3
-1
L
-25
5
CHI logo
CHI
W
29-23
+6
-4
W
-6
6
HOU logo
HOU@
L
23-26
-3
+3
P
5
7
TEN logo
TEN@
W
34-26
+8
+4
W
18
8
KC logo
KC
L
14-30
-16
+3
L
-31
9
GB logo
GB@
W
31-26
+5
+7.5
W
24
10BYE WEEK
11
TEN logo
TEN
W
24-17
+7
-3
W
-153
12
PIT logo
PIT
L
07-28
-21
+8.5
L
145
13
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
41-10
+31
+1
W
44
14
HOU logo
HOU
L
17-22
-5
-6.5
L
-13
15
MIN logo
MIN@
W
34-06
+28
+5
W
19
16
OAK logo
OAK@
L
25-33
-8
+3.5
L
-2
17
JAX logo
JAX
W
24-20
+4
-5.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.06
8th
EPA / Pass
+0.09
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
18th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.04
25th
EPA / Pass
+0.12
25th
EPA / Rush
-0.00
28th
Sack EPA
-5.37
30th
Turnover EPA
-7.07
8th
Point Differential
+1.2
14th
Points For
25.7
7th
Points Against
24.5
21st
Total Yards
364.6
9th
Passing Yards
229.1
7th
Rushing Yards
101.8
24th
Total Yards Allowed
383.0
30th
Passing Allowed
224.0
22nd
Rushing Allowed
120.4
25th

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
8th
4th Down
44%
22nd
Red Zone
66%
3rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
23rd
4th Down
38%
8th
Red Zone
49%
6th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
17th
Created
1.1
25th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
18th
Created
0.5
29th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
7th
Created
0.6
17th