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IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2017 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-12
nfelo Rating
132129th
Point Diff / Game
-8.830th
Net EPA / Play
-0.15830th

2017 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAR logo
LAR@
L
09-46
-37
+3.5
L
64
2
ARI logo
ARI
L
13-16
-3
+7
W
-32
3
CLE logo
CLE
W
31-28
+3
+1
W
-3
4
SEA logo
SEA@
L
18-46
-28
+12.5
L
-46
5
SF logo
SF
W
26-23
+3
-1.5
W
-16
6
TEN logo
TEN@
L
22-36
-14
+7
L
-6
7
JAX logo
JAX
L
00-27
-27
+3
L
-35
8
CIN logo
CIN@
L
23-24
-1
+10.5
W
10
9
HOU logo
HOU@
W
20-14
+6
+6
W
15
10
PIT logo
PIT
L
17-20
-3
+11
W
7
11BYE WEEK
12
TEN logo
TEN
L
16-20
-4
+3
L
-22
13
JAX logo
JAX@
L
10-30
-20
+10
L
-22
14
BUF logo
BUF@
L
07-13
-6
+3
L
-7
15
DEN logo
DEN
L
13-25
-12
+3
L
-9
16
BAL logo
BAL@
L
16-23
-7
+13.5
W
9
17
HOU logo
HOU
W
22-13
+9
-5.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.11
24th
EPA / Pass
-0.17
30th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
18th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
32nd
EPA / Pass
+0.18
32nd
EPA / Rush
-0.06
20th
Sack EPA
-5.62
29th
Turnover EPA
-4.84
22nd
Point Differential
-8.8
30th
Points For
16.4
30th
Points Against
25.3
30th
Total Yards
284.6
31st
Passing Yards
180.8
20th
Rushing Yards
103.8
21st
Total Yards Allowed
366.3
28th
Passing Allowed
229.9
30th
Rushing Allowed
120.4
25th

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
18th
4th Down
47%
16th
Red Zone
40%
31st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
44%
31st
4th Down
50%
18th
Red Zone
53%
15th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
5th
Created
1.1
24th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
5th
Created
0.8
15th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
13th
Created
0.3
28th