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Jacksonville Jaguars

2021 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
3-14
nfelo Rating
124832nd
Point Diff / Game
-12.032nd
Net EPA / Play
-0.23332nd

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
HOU logo
HOU@
L
21-37
-16
-3.5
L
-12
2
DEN logo
DEN
L
13-23
-10
+6
L
-31
3
ARI logo
ARI
L
19-31
-12
+8
L
-26
4
CIN logo
CIN@
L
21-24
-3
+7.5
W
26
5
TEN logo
TEN
L
19-37
-18
+4.5
L
-4
6
MIA logo
MIA
W
23-20
+3
+1.5
W
29
7BYE WEEK
8
SEA logo
SEA@
L
07-31
-24
+4
L
-8
9
BUF logo
BUF
W
09-06
+3
+14.5
W
7
10
IND logo
IND@
L
17-23
-6
+10
W
-1
11
SF logo
SF
L
10-30
-20
+6.5
L
-16
12
ATL logo
ATL
L
14-21
-7
+1.5
L
-34
13
LAR logo
LAR@
L
07-37
-30
+14
L
-12
14
TEN logo
TEN@
L
00-20
-20
+9
L
-21
15
HOU logo
HOU
L
16-30
-14
-6
L
-10
16
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
21-26
-5
+2.5
L
6
17
NE logo
NE@
L
10-50
-40
+16
L
-17
18
IND logo
IND
W
26-11
+15
+14
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.12
29th
EPA / Pass
-0.12
27th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
21st
Def. EPA / Play
+0.11
31st
EPA / Pass
+0.20
31st
EPA / Rush
+0.01
24th
Sack EPA
-3.84
12th
Turnover EPA
-7.32
3rd
Point Differential
-12.0
32nd
Points For
14.9
32nd
Points Against
26.9
28th
Total Yards
305.6
27th
Passing Yards
202.4
16th
Rushing Yards
103.2
22nd
Total Yards Allowed
353.2
20th
Passing Allowed
171.6
7th
Rushing Allowed
125.1
22nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
28th
4th Down
58%
10th
Red Zone
51%
28th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
25th
4th Down
67%
30th
Red Zone
63%
24th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
29th
Created
0.6
32nd

Interceptions

Thrown
1.0
26th
Created
0.4
30th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
28th
Created
0.2
32nd