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  4. 2025
JAX logo

Jacksonville Jaguars

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-4
nfelo Rating
151414th
Point Diff / Game
+4.311th
Net EPA / Play
+0.08010th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CAR logo
CAR
W
26-10
+16
-4.5
W
6
2
CIN logo
CIN@
L
27-31
-4
+3.5
L
5
3
HOU logo
HOU
W
17-10
+7
-1.5
W
-1
4
SF logo
SF@
W
26-21
+5
+3.5
W
20
5
KC logo
KC
W
31-28
+3
+3.5
W
14
6
SEA logo
SEA
L
12-20
-8
+1.5
L
-40
7
LAR logo
LAR
L
07-35
-28
+3
L
-20
8BYE WEEK
9
OAK logo
OAK@
W
30-29
+1
-1.5
L
1
10
HOU logo
HOU@
L
29-36
-7
+1
L
-10
11
LAC logo
LAC
W
35-06
+29
+3
W
16
12
ARI logo
ARI@
W
27-24
+3
-2.5
W
32
13
TEN logo
TEN@
W
25-03
+22
-6
W
13
14
IND logo
IND
W
36-19
+17
+2.5
W
17
15
NYJ logo
NYJ
12/14
-
-12
-
-
16
DEN logo
DEN@
12/21
-
-
-
17
IND logo
IND@
12/28
-
-
-
18
TEN logo
TEN
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.02
19th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
20th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
11th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.06
6th
EPA / Pass
-0.11
6th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
10th
Sack EPA
-3.85
17th
Turnover EPA
-5.38
13th
Point Differential
+4.3
11th
Points For
25.2
9th
Points Against
20.9
11th
Total Yards
328.0
17th
Passing Yards
148.3
28th
Rushing Yards
121.8
14th
Total Yards Allowed
310.7
11th
Passing Allowed
189.3
17th
Rushing Allowed
82.9
1st

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
23rd
4th Down
59%
12th
Red Zone
59%
12th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
22nd
4th Down
38%
4th
Red Zone
59%
19th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
14th
Created
1.8
2nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
22nd
Created
1.2
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
5th
Created
0.6
5th