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KC logo

Kansas City Chiefs

2018 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
13-5
nfelo Rating
16474th
Point Diff / Game
+8.71st
Net EPA / Play
+0.1811st

2018 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAC logo
LAC@
W
38-28
+10
+3.5
W
22
2
PIT logo
PIT@
W
42-37
+5
+4.5
W
30
3
SF logo
SF
W
38-27
+11
-6
W
12
4
DEN logo
DEN@
W
27-23
+4
-3.5
W
8
5
JAX logo
JAX
W
30-14
+16
-3
W
8
6
NE logo
NE@
L
40-43
-3
+4
W
9
7
CIN logo
CIN
W
45-10
+35
-6.5
W
22
8
DEN logo
DEN
W
30-23
+7
-9
L
-0
9
CLE logo
CLE@
W
37-21
+16
-8.5
W
38
10
ARI logo
ARI
W
26-14
+12
-16
L
-7
11
LAR logo
LAR@
L
51-54
-3
+3
P
19
12BYE WEEK
13
OAK logo
OAK@
W
40-33
+7
-14
L
-16
14
BAL logo
BAL
W
27-24
+3
-6.5
L
-9
15
LAC logo
LAC
L
28-29
-1
-3.5
L
-7
16
SEA logo
SEA@
L
31-38
-7
-1
L
-5
17
OAK logo
OAK
W
35-03
+32
-14
W
9
18BYE WEEK
19
IND logo
IND
W
31-13
+18
-4.5
W
3
20
NE logo
NE
L
31-37
-6
-3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.23
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.33
1st
EPA / Rush
+0.07
1st
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
25th
EPA / Pass
+0.04
16th
EPA / Rush
+0.06
31st
Sack EPA
-3.34
8th
Turnover EPA
-3.66
29th
Point Differential
+8.7
1st
Points For
34.8
1st
Points Against
26.2
24th
Total Yards
418.6
1st
Passing Yards
250.0
7th
Rushing Yards
115.4
15th
Total Yards Allowed
404.9
31st
Passing Allowed
253.4
30th
Rushing Allowed
132.2
27th

Conversions For

3rd Down
46%
3rd
4th Down
79%
4th
Red Zone
72%
1st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
42%
26th
4th Down
67%
28th
Red Zone
71%
29th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
11th
Created
1.6
9th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
10th
Created
0.9
9th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
12th
Created
0.7
7th