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  4. 2023
KC logo

Kansas City Chiefs

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
15-6
nfelo Rating
16972nd
Point Diff / Game
+5.25th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1005th

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
DET logo
DET
L
20-21
-1
-4
L
-28
2
JAX logo
JAX@
W
17-09
+8
-3
W
15
3
CHI logo
CHI
W
41-10
+31
-12.5
W
21
4
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
23-20
+3
-8
L
-13
5
MIN logo
MIN@
W
27-20
+7
-3
W
8
6
DEN logo
DEN
W
19-08
+11
-10.5
W
9
7
LAC logo
LAC
W
31-17
+14
-5.5
W
19
8
DEN logo
DEN@
L
09-24
-15
-7
L
-25
9
MIA logo
MIA
W
21-14
+7
+1
W
4
10BYE WEEK
11
PHI logo
PHI
L
17-21
-4
-2.5
L
-12
12
OAK logo
OAK@
W
31-17
+14
-9
W
23
13
GB logo
GB@
L
19-27
-8
-6
L
-17
14
BUF logo
BUF
L
17-20
-3
-2
L
-8
15
NE logo
NE@
W
27-17
+10
-10.5
L
23
16
OAK logo
OAK
L
14-20
-6
-11
L
-17
17
CIN logo
CIN
W
25-17
+8
-7
W
-154
18
LAC logo
LAC@
W
13-12
+1
+3
W
147
19
MIA logo
MIA
W
26-07
+19
-4.5
W
30
20
BUF logo
BUF@
W
27-24
+3
+2.5
W
37
21
BAL logo
BAL@
W
17-10
+7
+4.5
W
11
22
SF logo
SF
W
25-22
+3
+2
W
-18

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.02
10th
EPA / Pass
+0.05
13th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
16th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.08
7th
EPA / Pass
-0.14
4th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
25th
Sack EPA
-2.75
3rd
Turnover EPA
-6.11
12th
Point Differential
+5.2
5th
Points For
22.2
14th
Points Against
17.0
2nd
Total Yards
357.9
8th
Passing Yards
200.7
11th
Rushing Yards
109.3
17th
Total Yards Allowed
299.1
5th
Passing Allowed
177.0
11th
Rushing Allowed
113.3
17th

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
6th
4th Down
54%
12th
Red Zone
51%
20th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
5th
4th Down
53%
19th
Red Zone
51%
8th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
23rd
Created
1.1
23rd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
21st
Created
0.5
27th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
21st
Created
0.7
5th