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Miami Dolphins

2021 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-8
nfelo Rating
147819th
Point Diff / Game
-1.921st
Net EPA / Play
-0.03420th

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NE logo
NE@
W
17-16
+1
+3.5
W
4
2
BUF logo
BUF
L
00-35
-35
+3.5
L
-28
3
OAK logo
OAK@
L
28-31
-3
+3.5
W
4
4
IND logo
IND
L
17-27
-10
-2.5
L
-17
5
TB logo
TB@
L
17-45
-28
+11
L
-43
6
JAX logo
JAX@
L
20-23
-3
-1.5
L
-16
7
ATL logo
ATL
L
28-30
-2
+2.5
W
-16
8
BUF logo
BUF@
L
11-26
-15
+15
P
-17
9
HOU logo
HOU
W
17-09
+8
-3.5
W
-8
10
BAL logo
BAL
W
22-10
+12
+8.5
W
42
11
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
24-17
+7
-3.5
W
14
12
CAR logo
CAR
W
33-10
+23
28
13
NYG logo
NYG
W
20-09
+11
-6
W
19
14BYE WEEK
15
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
31-24
+7
-10
L
-16
16
NO logo
NO@
W
20-03
+17
-3.5
W
52
17
TEN logo
TEN@
L
03-34
-31
+3.5
L
-51
18
NE logo
NE
W
33-24
+9
+5.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.08
22nd
EPA / Pass
-0.01
19th
EPA / Rush
-0.13
29th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.04
11th
EPA / Pass
-0.05
8th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
16th
Sack EPA
-4.61
22nd
Turnover EPA
-5.61
16th
Point Differential
-1.9
21st
Points For
20.1
22nd
Points Against
21.9
15th
Total Yards
307.2
25th
Passing Yards
178.1
27th
Rushing Yards
92.2
29th
Total Yards Allowed
337.5
16th
Passing Allowed
213.1
18th
Rushing Allowed
109.8
13th

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
13th
4th Down
55%
15th
Red Zone
60%
15th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
19th
4th Down
61%
23rd
Red Zone
53%
7th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
19th
Created
1.6
5th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
14th
Created
0.8
14th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
25th
Created
0.8
3rd