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NE logo

New England Patriots

2022 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-9
nfelo Rating
15239th
Point Diff / Game
+1.010th
Net EPA / Play
+0.02010th

2022 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIA logo
MIA@
L
07-20
-13
+3.5
L
-38
2
PIT logo
PIT@
W
17-14
+3
-3
P
32
3
BAL logo
BAL
L
26-37
-11
+2.5
L
-42
4
GB logo
GB@
L
24-27
-3
+9.5
W
-58
5
DET logo
DET
W
29-00
+29
-3
W
24
6
CLE logo
CLE@
W
38-15
+23
+2.5
W
92
7
CHI logo
CHI
L
14-33
-19
-8.5
L
-39
8
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
22-17
+5
-3
W
-2
9
IND logo
IND
W
26-03
+23
-5
W
7
10BYE WEEK
11
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
10-03
+7
-3
W
5
12
MIN logo
MIN@
L
26-33
-7
+2.5
L
4
13
BUF logo
BUF
L
10-24
-14
+4
L
-6
14
ARI logo
ARI@
W
27-13
+14
-2
W
28
15
OAK logo
OAK@
L
24-30
-6
+1
L
-11
16
CIN logo
CIN
L
18-22
-4
+3
L
-1
17
MIA logo
MIA
W
23-21
+2
-3
L
-11
18
BUF logo
BUF@
L
23-35
-12
+8
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.09
26th
EPA / Pass
-0.07
22nd
EPA / Rush
-0.06
24th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.12
2nd
EPA / Pass
-0.12
3rd
EPA / Rush
-0.10
5th
Sack EPA
-4.54
22nd
Turnover EPA
-4.84
22nd
Point Differential
+1.0
10th
Points For
21.4
16th
Points Against
20.4
11th
Total Yards
314.7
26th
Passing Yards
175.5
19th
Rushing Yards
106.6
24th
Total Yards Allowed
322.1
9th
Passing Allowed
216.6
27th
Rushing Allowed
105.5
7th

Conversions For

3rd Down
35%
27th
4th Down
38%
28th
Red Zone
42%
32nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
20th
4th Down
37%
2nd
Red Zone
58%
21st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
28th
Created
1.6
4th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
17th
Created
1.1
3rd

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
29th
Created
0.5
20th