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  4. 2025
NE logo

New England Patriots

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-2
nfelo Rating
15728th
Point Diff / Game
+8.53rd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1593rd

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
OAK logo
OAK
L
13-20
-7
-2.5
L
-16
2
MIA logo
MIA@
W
33-27
+6
+2.5
W
18
3
PIT logo
PIT
L
14-21
-7
+1.5
L
-13
4
CAR logo
CAR
W
42-13
+29
-5.5
W
35
5
BUF logo
BUF@
W
23-20
+3
+7.5
W
11
6
NO logo
NO@
W
25-19
+6
-3.5
W
14
7
TEN logo
TEN@
W
31-13
+18
-6.5
W
28
8
CLE logo
CLE
W
32-13
+19
-7
W
15
9
ATL logo
ATL
W
24-23
+1
-5.5
L
-13
10
TB logo
TB@
W
28-23
+5
+2.5
W
9
11
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
27-14
+13
-12.5
W
40
12
CIN logo
CIN@
W
26-20
+6
-7.5
L
-1
13
NYG logo
NYG
W
33-15
+18
-7
W
12
14BYE WEEK
15
BUF logo
BUF
12/14
-
+1
-
-
16
BAL logo
BAL@
12/21
-
-
-
17
NYJ logo
NYJ@
12/28
-
-
-
18
MIA logo
MIA
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.10
8th
EPA / Pass
+0.29
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.09
28th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.06
7th
EPA / Pass
-0.05
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
11th
Sack EPA
-4.67
22nd
Turnover EPA
-5.14
18th
Point Differential
+8.5
3rd
Points For
27.0
7th
Points Against
18.5
5th
Total Yards
362.9
8th
Passing Yards
249.7
1st
Rushing Yards
113.2
21st
Total Yards Allowed
296.5
7th
Passing Allowed
196.4
24th
Rushing Allowed
89.5
3rd

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
8th
4th Down
78%
1st
Red Zone
51%
24th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
7th
4th Down
32%
3rd
Red Zone
73%
32nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.0
10th
Created
1.1
22nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
4th
Created
0.6
18th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
20th
Created
0.5
15th