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  4. 2025
NE logo

New England Patriots

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Model

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
17-4
nfelo Rating
16214th
Point Diff / Game
+8.73rd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1593rd

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
OAK logo
OAK
L
13-20
-7
-2.5
L
-16
2
MIA logo
MIA@
W
33-27
+6
+2.5
W
18
3
PIT logo
PIT
L
14-21
-7
+1.5
L
-13
4
CAR logo
CAR
W
42-13
+29
-5.5
W
35
5
BUF logo
BUF@
W
23-20
+3
+7.5
W
11
6
NO logo
NO@
W
25-19
+6
-3.5
W
14
7
TEN logo
TEN@
W
31-13
+18
-6.5
W
28
8
CLE logo
CLE
W
32-13
+19
-7
W
15
9
ATL logo
ATL
W
24-23
+1
-5.5
L
-13
10
TB logo
TB@
W
28-23
+5
+2.5
W
9
11
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
27-14
+13
-12.5
W
40
12
CIN logo
CIN@
W
26-20
+6
-7.5
L
-1
13
NYG logo
NYG
W
33-15
+18
-7
W
12
14BYE WEEK
15
BUF logo
BUF
L
31-35
-4
+2.5
L
-17
16
BAL logo
BAL@
W
28-24
+4
+3.5
W
12
17
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
42-10
+32
-13
W
23
18
MIA logo
MIA
W
38-10
+28
-14
W
30
19
LAC logo
LAC
W
16-03
+13
-3.5
W
3
20
HOU logo
HOU
W
28-16
+12
-3.5
W
2
21
DEN logo
DEN@
W
10-07
+3
-3.5
L
-4
22
SEA logo
SEA
L
13-29
-16
+4.5
L
171

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.07
9th
EPA / Pass
+0.18
3rd
EPA / Rush
-0.04
21st
Def. EPA / Play
-0.08
5th
EPA / Pass
-0.12
7th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
11th
Sack EPA
-5.55
27th
Turnover EPA
-5.34
14th
Point Differential
+8.7
3rd
Points For
26.5
8th
Points Against
17.9
3rd
Total Yards
362.9
6th
Passing Yards
225.7
2nd
Rushing Yards
127.0
6th
Total Yards Allowed
285.0
5th
Passing Allowed
179.1
18th
Rushing Allowed
99.2
6th

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
13th
4th Down
72%
2nd
Red Zone
56%
20th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
7th
4th Down
33%
2nd
Red Zone
58%
16th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
14th
Created
1.3
12th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
8th
Created
0.7
16th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
21st
Created
0.6
8th