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WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2018 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
136027th
Point Diff / Game
-4.925th
Net EPA / Play
-0.08925th

2018 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ARI logo
ARI@
W
24-06
+18
+2.5
W
15
2
IND logo
IND
L
09-21
-12
-6
L
-22
3
GB logo
GB
W
31-17
+14
+2
W
4
4BYE WEEK
5
NO logo
NO@
L
19-43
-24
+6
L
-17
6
CAR logo
CAR
W
23-17
+6
+1.5
W
-2
7
DAL logo
DAL
W
20-17
+3
+1.5
W
2
8
NYG logo
NYG@
W
20-13
+7
-1
W
24
9
ATL logo
ATL
L
14-38
-24
-1.5
L
-14
10
TB logo
TB@
W
16-03
+13
+3.5
W
6
11
HOU logo
HOU
L
21-23
-2
+3
W
-96
12
DAL logo
DAL@
L
23-31
-8
+7
L
5
13
PHI logo
PHI@
L
13-28
-15
+5.5
L
1
14
NYG logo
NYG
L
16-40
-24
+3
L
-74
15
JAX logo
JAX@
W
16-13
+3
+7
W
18
16
TEN logo
TEN@
L
16-25
-9
+11
W
11
17
PHI logo
PHI
L
00-24
-24
+6
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.08
25th
EPA / Pass
-0.12
28th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
12th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
21st
EPA / Pass
+0.03
15th
EPA / Rush
+0.00
27th
Sack EPA
-4.36
15th
Turnover EPA
-5.76
16th
Point Differential
-4.9
25th
Points For
17.6
29th
Points Against
22.4
15th
Total Yards
299.9
28th
Passing Yards
164.2
26th
Rushing Yards
110.9
17th
Total Yards Allowed
353.6
17th
Passing Allowed
218.1
19th
Rushing Allowed
116.3
16th

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
23rd
4th Down
56%
17th
Red Zone
53%
24th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
44%
29th
4th Down
38%
2nd
Red Zone
50%
4th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
14th
Created
1.6
10th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
23rd
Created
0.9
11th

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
3rd
Created
0.6
10th