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  4. 2021
WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2021 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-10
nfelo Rating
142224th
Point Diff / Game
-5.825th
Net EPA / Play
-0.10826th

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAC logo
LAC
L
16-20
-4
-1.5
L
-176
2
NYG logo
NYG
W
30-29
+1
-4
L
24
3
BUF logo
BUF@
L
21-43
-22
+7
L
3
4
ATL logo
ATL@
W
34-30
+4
-2.5
W
70
5
NO logo
NO
L
22-33
-11
+2.5
L
-5
6
KC logo
KC
L
13-31
-18
+6.5
L
-11
7
GB logo
GB@
L
10-24
-14
+9
L
8
8
DEN logo
DEN@
L
10-17
-7
+3.5
L
-4
9BYE WEEK
10
TB logo
TB
W
29-19
+10
+10
W
19
11
CAR logo
CAR@
W
27-21
+6
+3.5
W
23
12
SEA logo
SEA
W
17-15
+2
+1.5
W
11
13
OAK logo
OAK@
W
17-15
+2
+1
W
18
14
DAL logo
DAL
L
20-27
-7
+6.5
L
-99
15
PHI logo
PHI@
L
17-27
-10
+10
P
48
16
DAL logo
DAL@
L
14-56
-42
+10
L
-36
17
PHI logo
PHI
L
16-20
-4
+5
W
3
18
NYG logo
NYG@
W
22-07
+15
-6
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.05
21st
EPA / Pass
-0.09
25th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
14th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.06
27th
EPA / Pass
+0.14
25th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
11th
Sack EPA
-4.51
19th
Turnover EPA
-6.10
12th
Point Differential
-5.8
25th
Points For
19.7
23rd
Points Against
25.5
25th
Total Yards
323.9
21st
Passing Yards
191.7
18th
Rushing Yards
121.5
11th
Total Yards Allowed
359.4
22nd
Passing Allowed
220.8
22nd
Rushing Allowed
104.5
8th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
20th
4th Down
50%
22nd
Red Zone
52%
26th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
48%
31st
4th Down
60%
22nd
Red Zone
58%
18th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
19th
Created
1.1
21st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
21st
Created
0.6
22nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
20th
Created
0.5
11th