SF49ers
4-1
19
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
10 mph
30
TBBuccaneers
4-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
13
3
0
19
Buccaneers
7
13
7
3
30
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
363
352
Total Plays
67
51
Yards / Play
5.4
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.21
Passing Yards
296
248
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
10.8
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.52
Rushing Yards
67
104
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.57
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-51
-8
Sack EPA
-9.93
-2.13
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
65
31
Penalty EPA
-12.03
-6.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+25.9
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-14.4
Net QB Adjustment
+54.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-37.4
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-37.4
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
10
22
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10
EPA
EPA / Play
8
13
EPA / Pass
10
15
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
11
26
Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
15
Yards / Game
17
25
Passing Yards / Game
5
6
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12
EPA
EPA / Play
19
24
EPA / Pass
18
25
EPA / Rush
8
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
3
30
Fumbles / Game
19
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
25
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U