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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ buccaneers week 6, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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SF logo
SF49ers
4-1
19
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
10 mph
30
TBBuccaneers
4-1
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
13
3
0
19
Buccaneers
7
13
7
3
30

Spread

TB logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
363
352
Total Plays
67
51
Yards / Play
5.4
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.21
Passing Yards
296
248
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
10.8
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.52
Rushing Yards
67
104
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.57
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-51
-8
Sack EPA
-9.93
-2.13
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
65
31
Penalty EPA
-12.03
-6.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+25.9
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-14.4
Net QB Adjustment
+54.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-37.4
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-37.4
Value
Ptile
11/10
-7.8
6
11/17
-5.8
13
12/08
-4.0
22
12/15
2.7
68
12/22
1.0
56
12/29
0.9
55
01/05
-3.1
27
09/14
3.2
74
09/21
-0.2
50
10/02
6.3
89
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Value
Ptile
12/15
9.2
95
12/22
3.9
75
12/29
11.8
99
01/05
4.5
78
01/12
3.0
70
09/07
1.5
61
09/15
2.2
66
09/21
4.4
79
09/28
0.5
56
10/05
11.1
98

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5

EPA

EPA / Play
7
13
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
20
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
27
12
Fumbles / Game
11
9
Turnover EPA / Game
13
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
16
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
3
31
Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Buccaneers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
22
20
Passing Yards / Game
11
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
11

EPA

EPA / Play
22
18
EPA / Pass
24
24
EPA / Rush
10
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
27
Interceptions / Game
15
29
Fumbles / Game
6
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
27
15
RZ Efficiency
23
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
25
W
W
O
12/12
-6
L
L
U
12/22
-12
L
L
O
12/30
-6
L
L
O
01/05
-23
L
L
O
09/07
4
W
W
U
09/14
5
W
W
O
09/21
1
W
L
U
09/28
-5
L
L
O
10/02
3
W
W
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
23
W
W
O
12/22
-2
L
L
O
12/29
34
W
W
O
01/05
8
W
L
O
01/12
-3
L
L
U
09/07
3
W
W
U
09/15
1
W
W
U
09/21
2
W
L
O
09/28
-6
L
L
O
10/05
3
W
W
O