SF49ers
0-4
23
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
026
INDColts
1-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
49ers
3
3
0
17
0
23
Colts
3
3
10
7
3
26
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
447
Total Plays
70
73
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.09
Passing Yards
336
288
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.02
Rushing Yards
66
159
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.39
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
19
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.12
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-26
Sack EPA
-3.86
-5.76
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
77
62
Penalty EPA
-12.20
-6.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model63.0%
Spread Pick
Colts-1.5
Expected Value
+20.0%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,369
Away nfelo
1,373
Home Field
+108.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+30.8
Net QB Adjustment
+44.7
Home QB Adjustment
+28.6
Away QB Adjustment
-16.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
92.2
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+28.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
30
Yards / Game
12
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25
EPA
EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
9
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
23
15
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
31
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
28
15
Colts Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
25
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22
EPA
EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
30
26
EPA / Rush
18
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
30
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
31
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
1-9
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U