SF49ers
6-8
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
12 mph
29
MIADolphins
6-8
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
0
7
17
Dolphins
3
10
6
10
29
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
381
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
6.1
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.25
Passing Yards
293
--
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.17
Rushing Yards
81
166
Rush Attempts
18
30
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.65
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-4.49
--
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
90
45
Penalty EPA
-9.10
-7.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model49.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+32
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+25.4
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-14.2
Net QB Adjustment
+33.1
Home QB Adjustment
+32.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.2
Market Regression
-17.3
Final Difference
4.9
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
9
Yards / Game
4
6
Passing Yards / Game
2
7
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8
EPA
EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
9
12
EPA / Rush
13
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
16
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
5
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Dolphins Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
29
Yards / Game
18
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
2
Rushing Yards / Game
21
18
EPA
EPA / Play
21
30
EPA / Pass
13
14
EPA / Rush
31
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
16
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U