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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ dolphins week 16, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
6-8
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
12 mph
29
MIADolphins
6-8
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
0
7
17
Dolphins
3
10
6
10
29

Spread

MIA logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
374
381
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
6.1
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.25
Passing Yards
293
--
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.17
Rushing Yards
81
166
Rush Attempts
18
30
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.65
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-4.49
--
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
90
45
Penalty EPA
-9.10
-7.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model49.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+25.3
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-14.1
Net QB Adjustment
+33.1
Home QB Adjustment
+32.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.2
Market Regression
-20.4
Final Difference
1.9
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Value
Ptile
09/29
-0.3
47
10/06
-4.2
21
10/10
6.4
86
10/20
-2.8
29
10/27
6.9
89
11/10
3.8
74
11/17
1.7
61
12/01
-4.7
18
12/08
7.0
90
12/12
-10.5
2
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+32.9
Value
Ptile
09/08
1.3
58
09/12
-5.2
15
10/27
3.0
69
11/03
6.4
86
11/11
-3.3
26
11/17
7.0
89
11/24
8.1
93
11/28
6.3
86
12/08
9.2
95
12/15
-5.1
15

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
49ers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
14
9
Yards / Game
4
6
Passing Yards / Game
2
7
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8

EPA

EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
9
12
EPA / Rush
13
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
16
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
5
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Dolphins Offense vs 49ers Defense
Dolphins logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
29
Yards / Game
18
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
2
Rushing Yards / Game
21
18

EPA

EPA / Play
21
30
EPA / Pass
13
14
EPA / Rush
31
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
16
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-1
L
L
U
10/10
12
W
W
O
10/20
-10
L
L
U
10/27
6
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
L
U
11/17
-3
L
L
U
11/24
-28
L
L
O
12/01
-25
L
L
P
12/08
25
W
W
O
12/12
-6
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
5
W
W
U
10/20
-6
L
L
U
10/27
-1
L
L
O
11/03
-3
L
W
O
11/11
8
W
W
U
11/17
15
W
W
O
11/24
19
W
W
O
11/28
-13
L
L
U
12/08
6
W
L
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U