SF49ers
3-2
14
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
028
ATLFalcons
2-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
14
0
0
14
Falcons
8
7
7
0
22
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
289
Total Plays
57
56
Yards / Play
6.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
121
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
13/14(93%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.37
Rushing Yards
50
168
Rush Attempts
16
40
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.65
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.49
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-2.61
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
30
40
Penalty EPA
-3.84
-1.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-106
Home nfelo
1,457
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+73.6
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+20.9
Net QB Adjustment
-30.8
Home QB Adjustment
-13.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
21
Yards / Game
6
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
23
EPA
EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
23
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
26
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
5
RZ Efficiency
19
13
Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
1
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2
EPA
EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
8
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
27
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
20
19
Turnover EPA / Game
24
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
16
RZ Efficiency
14
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U