SF49ers
1-0
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
021
NOSaints
0-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
6
10
3
7
26
Saints
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
307
Total Plays
68
67
Yards / Play
5.1
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
267
186
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.22
Rushing Yards
77
121
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.21
-5.69
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-12
-21
Sack EPA
-8.75
-6.95
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
40
45
Penalty EPA
-6.41
-8.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-69
Home nfelo
1,366
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+65.5
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+13.8
Net QB Adjustment
+41.2
Home QB Adjustment
-19.7
Away QB Adjustment
-60.8
Market Regression
+51.6
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-60.8
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
30
Yards / Game
5
18
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18
EPA
EPA / Play
21
27
EPA / Pass
11
29
EPA / Rush
31
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
21
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
5
Rushing Yards / Game
10
17
EPA
EPA / Play
29
9
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
12
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
22
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
26
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U