SF49ers
1-0
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
021
NOSaints
0-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
6
10
3
7
26
Saints
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
307
Total Plays
68
67
Yards / Play
5.1
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
267
186
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.22
Rushing Yards
77
121
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.21
-5.69
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-12
-21
Sack EPA
-8.75
-6.95
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
40
45
Penalty EPA
-6.41
-8.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-69
Home nfelo
1,366
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+65.5
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+13.8
Net QB Adjustment
+41.2
Home QB Adjustment
-19.7
Away QB Adjustment
-60.8
Market Regression
+51.6
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-60.8
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
10
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
8
14
EPA / Pass
10
23
EPA / Rush
26
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
16
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
15
Yards / Game
26
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
12
EPA
EPA / Play
30
24
EPA / Pass
28
25
EPA / Rush
30
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
23
30
Fumbles / Game
24
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
22
4th Down Efficiency
32
23
RZ Efficiency
32
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U