SF49ers
12-3
26
TBD
Lumen Field
51°F
3 mph
21
SEASeahawks
11-4
TBD
Lumen Field
51°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
10
3
6
7
26
Seahawks
0
0
7
14
21
Spread
-3.5
Total
PUSH
47
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
348
Total Plays
49
71
Yards / Play
8.1
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.13
Passing Yards
270
223
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
11.7
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.62
+0.27
Rushing Yards
128
125
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
27
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
50%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-10
Sack EPA
-3.83
-2.71
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
57
29
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-3.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,613
Home Field
+41.1
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.5
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
-75.7
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22
EPA
EPA / Play
4
19
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
8
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
9
Interceptions / Game
20
9
Fumbles / Game
26
4
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
19
22
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
7
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
10
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12
EPA
EPA / Play
9
3
EPA / Pass
7
2
EPA / Rush
19
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
20
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
8
RZ Efficiency
7
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U