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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ seahawks week 17, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
12-3
26
TBD
Lumen Field
51°F
3 mph
21
SEASeahawks
11-4
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
51°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
10
3
6
7
26
Seahawks
0
0
7
14
21

Spread

SF logo
-3.5

Total

PUSH
47
P

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
398
348
Total Plays
49
71
Yards / Play
8.1
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.13
Passing Yards
270
223
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
11.7
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.62
+0.27
Rushing Yards
128
125
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
18
27
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
50%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-10
Sack EPA
-3.83
-2.71
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
57
29
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-3.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,613
Home Field
+41.1
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.5
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
-75.7
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Value
Ptile
10/20
-6.5
13
10/27
-1.0
47
10/31
7.6
92
11/11
-8.8
7
11/17
6.7
89
11/24
0.6
56
12/01
-0.5
49
12/08
5.9
86
12/15
-1.3
44
12/21
-8.3
8
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Value
Ptile
10/13
5.8
86
10/20
-1.8
40
10/27
-2.6
34
11/03
9.6
96
11/11
0.9
59
11/24
-8.4
8
12/02
1.0
60
12/08
-5.0
20
12/15
3.8
78
12/22
-9.9
4

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22

EPA

EPA / Play
4
19
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
8
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
9
Interceptions / Game
20
9
Fumbles / Game
26
4
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
19
22
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
7
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
10
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12

EPA

EPA / Play
9
3
EPA / Pass
7
2
EPA / Rush
19
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
20
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
8
RZ Efficiency
7
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
9
W
L
U
10/27
38
W
W
O
10/31
3
W
L
O
11/11
-3
L
L
O
11/17
10
W
P
O
11/24
29
W
W
U
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/08
2
W
W
O
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/21
3
W
L
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
4
W
W
O
10/20
-14
L
L
U
10/27
7
W
L
U
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/11
3
W
W
O
11/24
8
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
O
12/08
-16
L
L
U
12/15
6
W
P
O
12/22
-14
L
L
U