CHIBears
4-8
13
TBD
Levi's Stadium
65°F
4 mph
38
SF49ers
5-7
TBD
Levi's Stadium
65°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
6
7
13
49ers
14
10
0
14
38
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
162
452
Total Plays
53
61
Yards / Play
3.1
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.39
Passing Yards
94
321
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
12.3
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.81
Rushing Yards
68
131
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.57
-1.69
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-46
-4
Sack EPA
-14.58
-1.23
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
30
31
Penalty EPA
-2.61
-4.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+40.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
-4.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
29
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
2
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18
EPA
EPA / Play
27
30
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
25
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
9
31
49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
14
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27
EPA
EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
9
10
EPA / Rush
13
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
14
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U