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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ chargers week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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CHI logo
CHIBears
2-5
13
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
30
LACChargers
2-4
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
0
6
13
Chargers
14
10
6
0
30

Spread

LAC logo
-9.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
295
352
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
4.6
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.07
Passing Yards
222
--
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
31/40(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.32
Rushing Yards
73
54
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.57
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.25
-5.81
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-2.15
--
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
53
--
Penalty EPA
-7.50
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers-9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+273
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,387
Home Field
+74.5
Base HFA
+43.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
+15.6
Net QB Adjustment
+71.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-74.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
234.8
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bagent headshot

T. Bagent

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-74.0
Value
Ptile
10/22
1.0
55
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Value
Ptile
12/26
-4.4
21
01/01
5.3
86
01/08
4.6
83
01/14
-1.4
43
09/10
2.1
64
09/17
2.4
67
09/24
13.5
99
10/01
-1.7
38
10/16
1.5
59
10/22
-7.1
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Chargers Defense
Bears logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
23
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16

EPA

EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
3
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
22
25
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Chargers Offense vs Bears Defense
Chargers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
21
19
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
9
Rushing Yards / Game
24
1

EPA

EPA / Play
22
8
EPA / Pass
18
18
EPA / Rush
31
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
29
4th Down Efficiency
23
4
RZ Efficiency
13
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-22
L
L
O
01/01
-31
L
L
U
01/08
-16
L
L
U
09/10
-18
L
L
O
09/17
-10
L
L
O
09/24
-31
L
L
O
10/01
-3
L
P
O
10/05
20
W
W
O
10/15
-6
L
L
U
10/22
18
W
W
O
LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
17
W
W
U
01/01
21
W
W
U
01/08
-3
L
W
O
01/14
-1
L
L
O
09/10
-2
L
L
O
09/17
-3
L
L
O
09/24
4
W
W
U
10/01
7
W
P
U
10/16
-3
L
L
U
10/22
-14
L
L
U