CHIBears
2-5
13
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
030
LACChargers
2-4
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
0
6
13
Chargers
14
10
6
0
30
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
352
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
4.6
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.07
Passing Yards
222
--
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
31/40(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.32
Rushing Yards
73
54
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.57
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.25
-5.81
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-2.15
--
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
53
--
Penalty EPA
-7.50
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
Chargers-9.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+271
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+73.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
+70.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-73.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
234.5
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bagent
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-73.1
Value
Ptile
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
23
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16
EPA
EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
3
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
22
25
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Chargers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
19
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
9
Rushing Yards / Game
24
1
EPA
EPA / Play
22
8
EPA / Pass
18
18
EPA / Rush
31
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
29
4th Down Efficiency
23
4
RZ Efficiency
13
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U