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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ jaguars week 16, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
7-7
41
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
55°F
5 mph
17
JAXJaguars
1-13
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
55°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
6
21
7
41
Jaguars
3
7
0
7
17

Spread

CHI logo
-9.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
391
279
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
5.6
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.19
Passing Yards
263
203
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.36
-0.14
Rushing Yards
128
76
Rush Attempts
33
16
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
28
14
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.59
-7.33
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-8
Sack EPA
-0.85
-2.61
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
40
115
Penalty EPA
-1.70
-10.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market79.1%
Model72.5%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+19.3%
Cover Probability
62.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-115
Home nfelo
1,363
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-23.6
Home QB Adjustment
-11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+12.3
Market Regression
-17.8
Final Difference
-168.4
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
Value
Ptile
12/15
-2.8
32
12/22
-5.1
19
12/29
-2.4
35
09/13
3.0
67
09/20
-6.1
10
09/27
-0.9
38
11/29
-2.7
25
12/06
0.7
49
12/13
3.3
68
12/20
-0.1
45
M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.3
Value
Ptile
10/12
-2.9
30
10/26
-5.7
16
11/02
-2.1
35
09/10
-2.6
35
09/17
0.7
57
09/24
-4.7
20
09/28
-3.7
26
11/29
1.9
58
12/06
-1.9
29
12/13
-8.4
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bears logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
23
31
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
23
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30

EPA

EPA / Play
22
30
EPA / Pass
24
30
EPA / Rush
20
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
7
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
20
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
14
26
RZ Efficiency
21
24
Jaguars Offense vs Bears Defense
Jaguars logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
30
13
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
22
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14

EPA

EPA / Play
30
10
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
17
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
17
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
20
21
Turnover EPA / Game
11
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
11
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
14
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
1
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
U
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/08
-7
L
L
U
11/16
-6
L
L
U
11/29
-16
L
L
O
12/06
-4
L
L
O
12/13
29
W
W
U
12/20
6
W
W
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-16
L
L
U
10/18
-18
L
L
U
10/25
-10
L
L
O
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/15
-4
L
W
U
11/22
-24
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
W
O
12/06
-3
L
W
P
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/20
-26
L
L
O