CHIBears
7-7
41
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
55°F
5 mph
17
JAXJaguars
1-13
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
55°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
6
21
7
41
Jaguars
3
7
0
7
17
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
279
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
5.6
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.19
Passing Yards
263
203
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.36
-0.14
Rushing Yards
128
76
Rush Attempts
33
16
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
14
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.59
-7.33
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-8
Sack EPA
-0.85
-2.61
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
40
115
Penalty EPA
-1.70
-10.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model72.6%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+9.5
Expected Value
+19.3%
Cover Probability
62.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-119
Home nfelo
1,361
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-23.6
Home QB Adjustment
-11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+12.3
Market Regression
-13.1
Final Difference
-169.1
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
31
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
23
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30
EPA
EPA / Play
22
30
EPA / Pass
24
30
EPA / Rush
20
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
7
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
20
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
14
26
RZ Efficiency
21
24
Jaguars Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
13
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
22
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14
EPA
EPA / Play
30
10
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
17
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
17
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
20
21
Turnover EPA / Game
11
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
11
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
14
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U