CHIBears
0-1
21
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
052
DETLions
0-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
7
0
7
21
Lions
14
14
10
14
52
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
511
Total Plays
64
58
Yards / Play
5.3
8.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.40
Passing Yards
205
--
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
23/28(82%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.86
Rushing Yards
134
177
Rush Attempts
27
30
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.39
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
100%
86%
Red Zone Conversions
2
6
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.51
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-29
--
Sack EPA
-6.67
--
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-6.83
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+154
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-9.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.4
Market Regression
+31.8
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
10
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
2
8
EPA
EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
11
5
EPA / Rush
7
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
10
RZ Efficiency
22
25
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
30
9
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25
EPA
EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
21
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
26
Interceptions / Game
6
1
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
2
4th Down Efficiency
14
11
RZ Efficiency
5
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
1-9
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U